蔚来首单季盈利深度解析：十一年深耕破局，盈利之路何去何从（中英对照版）
中国新能源汽车行业迎来了一则足以载入行业发展史册的重要消息——蔚来汽车（NIO）正式发布公告，预计公司2025年第四季度将实现经调整经营利润约7亿元至12亿元人民币。这一数字看似简单，却承载着蔚来整整11年的坚守与拼搏，标志着这家成立于2014年的新能源汽车新势力，在历经多年亏损、市场质疑、行业洗牌之后，终于迎来了成立以来的首次单季度盈利。这不仅是蔚来自身发展史上的一个里程碑，更是中国高端新能源汽车领域“非低价内卷”模式可行性的有力佐证，为整个行业的发展注入了新的思考与活力。
on february 5, 2026, china's new energy vehicle industry ushered in an important news that is worthy of being recorded in the industry's development history - nio officially released an announcement, expecting the company to achieve an adjusted operating profit of about 700 million yuan to 1,2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025, although this figure seems simple, it carries nio's 11 years of perseverance and hard work, marking that this new energy vehicle startup founded in 2014 has finally achieved its first quarterly profit since its establishment after years of losses, market doubts and industry reshuffling, this is not only a milestone in nio's own development history, but also a strong proof of the feasibility of the "non-low-price involution" model in china's high-end new energy vehicle field, injecting new thinking and vitality into the development of the entire industry,
消息一经传出，立刻在整个资本市场、汽车行业以及消费者群体中引发了轩然大波，不同的人给出了截然不同的反应，既有震惊与质疑，也有欣慰与期待。这种两极分化的反应，背后折射出的是蔚来过去11年走过的坎坷历程，以及新能源汽车行业发展的复杂性与不确定性。对于大多数关注新能源汽车行业的人来说，蔚来此次实现单季度盈利，几乎是“意料之外，情理之中”的事情——意料之外的是，这份盈利来得如此之快、如此之突然，毕竟就在一年前的2024年，蔚来还处于巨额亏损的状态，全年亏损额度高达207,18亿元；情理之中的是，蔚来多年来在技术研发、产品布局、用户服务等方面的持续投入，终于在2025年第四季度迎来了收获期，这份盈利，是对其长期主义坚守的最好回报。
as soon as the news was released, it immediately caused an uproar in the entire capital market, automobile industry and consumer groups, different people gave completely different reactions, including shock and doubt, as well as relief and expectation, this polarized reaction reflects the bumpy journey nio has gone through in the past 11 years, as well as the complexity and uncertainty of the development of the new energy vehicle industry, for most people concerned about the new energy vehicle industry, nio's achievement of quarterly profit this time is almost something "unexpected but reasonable" - what is unexpected is that this profit came so quickly and suddenly, after all, just a year ago in 2024, nio was still in a state of huge losses, with an annual loss of up to 20,718 billion yuan; what is reasonable is that nio's continuous investment in technology research and development, product layout, user services and other aspects over the years has finally ushered in a harvest period in the fourth quarter of 2025, and this profit is the best reward for its adherence to long-termism,
回顾蔚来的发展历程，从2014年成立之初，这家企业就带着“打破高端汽车市场被外资品牌垄断”的使命，以“用户企业”为核心定位，走出了一条不同于其他新能源车企的发展道路。在成立初期，蔚来凭借独特的用户服务模式、极具设计感的产品以及大胆的技术布局，迅速在高端新能源汽车市场站稳了脚跟，成为中国新势力车企的代表之一。但与此同时，蔚来也因为重资产投入、研发成本高企、产能利用率不足等问题，陷入了长期亏损的困境，每年的亏损额度动辄数十亿甚至上百亿元，一度被外界质疑“烧钱不止”“难以持续”，甚至有声音将其商业模式称为“庞氏骗局”，认为其所谓的“用户服务”不过是吸引资本投入的噱头，终究难以实现盈利。
looking back at nio's development history, since its establishment in 2014, the company has taken the mission of "breaking the monopoly of foreign brands in the high-end automobile market" and taken "user enterprise" as its core positioning, taking a development path different from other new energy automobile enterprises, in the early days of its establishment, nio quickly gained a firm foothold in the high-end new energy vehicle market with its unique user service model, highly designed products and bold technology layout, becoming one of the representatives of china's new forces automobile enterprises, but at the same time, due to problems such as heavy asset investment, high r&d costs and insufficient capacity utilization, nio fell into a long-term loss predicament, its annual loss was often billions or even tens of billions of yuan, which was once questioned by the outside world as "endless money burning" and "unsustainable", there were even voices calling its business model a "ponzi scheme", believing that its so-called "user service" was just a gimmick to attract capital investment and would eventually be unable to achieve profitability,
这种质疑的声音，在2024年达到了顶峰。2024年，全球新能源汽车市场迎来了前所未有的内卷，价格战愈演愈烈，从低端市场蔓延至中高端市场，许多车企为了抢占市场份额，纷纷降价促销，甚至不惜亏本销售。在这样的市场环境下，蔚来始终坚持高端定位，没有盲目参与价格战，这也导致其市场份额受到了一定的挤压，全年销量未能达到预期，亏损额度进一步扩大至207,18亿元。与此同时，2025年上半年，蔚来的亏损态势依然没有得到明显改善，第一季度亏损28,52亿元，第二季度亏损31,68亿元，第三季度虽然亏损额度有所收窄，但依然亏损34,80亿元。连续多年的巨额亏损，让资本市场对蔚来的信心持续下降，股价也一度处于低迷状态，甚至有投资者担忧，蔚来可能会重蹈一些破产新势力车企的覆辙，难以坚持下去。
this voice of doubt reached its peak in 2024, in 2024, the global new energy vehicle market ushered in an unprecedented involution, and the price war became increasingly fierce, spreading from the low-end market to the mid-to-high-end market, many automobile enterprises, in order to seize market share, have successively reduced prices and promoted sales, even selling at a loss, in such a market environment, nio has always adhered to the high-end positioning and did not blindly participate in the price war, which also led to a certain squeeze on its market share, its annual sales failed to meet expectations, and the loss further expanded to 20,718 billion yuan, at the same time, in the first half of 2025, nio's loss situation still did not improve significantly, with a loss of 2,852 billion yuan in the first quarter and 3,168 billion yuan in the second quarter, although the loss narrowed slightly in the third quarter, it still lost 3,48 billion yuan, years of consecutive huge losses have made the capital market's confidence in nio continue to decline, and the stock price has been in a downturn, some investors even worry that nio may follow the footsteps of some bankrupt new forces automobile enterprises and be unable to persist,
就在这样的背景下，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利预告，如同一声惊雷，打破了市场的沉寂，也颠覆了很多人对蔚来的固有认知。从2025年第三季度亏损34,80亿元，到第四季度预计盈利7亿元至12亿元，短短一个季度的时间，蔚来实现了从巨额亏损到盈利的惊天逆转，这样的转变幅度，在全球汽车行业历史上都是极为罕见的，也难怪会让很多人感到震惊不已。除了震惊之外，很多人的第二反应就是质疑——这份盈利真的是真实的吗？是不是蔚来通过会计算账的技巧，进行了财务美化？是不是通过调整会计核算方式、计提减值准备等手段，人为制造出的盈利假象？毕竟，在资本市场上，确实有一些企业为了提振市场信心、稳定股价，会通过一些财务手段来修饰财报，制造出虚假的盈利数据。
against this background, nio's profit forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, like a thunderbolt, broke the market's silence and subverted many people's inherent perception of nio, from a loss of 3,48 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025 to an expected profit of 700 million yuan to 1,2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, nio achieved a shocking reversal from huge losses to profits in just one quarter, such a magnitude of change is extremely rare in the history of the global automobile industry, which is why it has shocked many people, in addition to shock, many people's second reaction is doubt - is this profit really real? did nio carry out financial beautification through accounting skills? is it a false profit illusion artificially created by adjusting accounting methods, accruing impairment provisions and other means? after all, in the capital market, there are indeed some enterprises that will modify their financial reports through some financial means to create false profit data in order to boost market confidence and stabilize stock prices,
当然，也有一部分人，始终坚定地支持着蔚来，他们就是蔚来的用户、投资者以及长期关注蔚来发展的人。这部分人坚信，蔚来多年来的投入和坚守，终究会迎来回报，此次单季度盈利，并不是偶然，而是必然的结果，是蔚来技术、产品、服务等多方面优势集中爆发的体现。对于他们而言，这份盈利，就像是一场漫长黑夜之后迎来的第一缕曙光，让他们多年的等待和坚守有了归宿，也让他们对蔚来的未来充满了更大的期待。在蔚来的用户社群中，很多用户纷纷留言庆祝，有人表示“终于守得云开见月明，为蔚来感到骄傲”，有人说道“一直相信蔚来的模式，这份盈利证明了一切”，还有人表示“将继续支持蔚来，期待它未来能创造更多惊喜”。
of course, there are also some people who have always firmly supported nio - they are nio's users, investors and people who have long paid attention to nio's development, these people firmly believe that nio's years of investment and perseverance will eventually be rewarded, this quarterly profit is not accidental, but an inevitable result, reflecting the concentrated outbreak of nio's advantages in technology, products, services and other aspects, for them, this profit is like the first ray of dawn after a long night, giving a home to their years of waiting and perseverance, and making them full of greater expectations for nio's future, in nio's user community, many users left messages to celebrate, some said "finally, the clouds have cleared and the moon has appeared, and i am proud of nio", some said "i have always believed in nio's model, and this profit proves everything", and others said "i will continue to support nio and look forward to it creating more surprises in the future",
一边是震惊与质疑，一边是欣慰与期待，蔚来的首次单季度盈利，就像一面镜子，照出了不同人对这家企业、对新能源汽车行业的不同认知。那么，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，究竟是怎么实现的？这份盈利的含金量到底有多高？是否存在所谓的“猫腻”？更重要的是，凭借这份单季度盈利，蔚来在2026年能够彻底翻身，实现持续盈利，摆脱长期亏损的困境吗？带着这些疑问，结合蔚来的发展历程、市场环境、产品布局、技术投入以及行业竞争格局等多方面因素，我将分享一些个人的看法和分析，与大家共同探讨蔚来的盈利之路以及未来的发展前景。
on one side is shock and doubt, on the other side is relief and expectation, nio's first quarterly profit is like a mirror, reflecting different people's different perceptions of this enterprise and the new energy vehicle industry, so, how did nio achieve its profit in the fourth quarter of 2025? how high is the gold content of this profit? is there any so-called "trickery"? more importantly, with this quarterly profit, can nio completely turn around in 2026, achieve sustained profit and get rid of the long-term loss predicament? with these questions, combined with various factors such as nio's development history, market environment, product layout, technology investment and industry competition pattern, i will share some personal views and analyses, and discuss nio's profit path and future development prospects with you,
在深入分析蔚来盈利的具体原因之前，我们首先要明确一个核心问题：蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，到底是真实可信的，还是充满“水分”的？这也是很多人最为关心的问题，毕竟，只有明确了这份盈利的真实性，我们后续的分析才有意义。结合蔚来发布的公告、行业数据以及相关财务知识，我的观点是：蔚来此次第四季度的盈利，水分极小，“猫腻”空间不大，是一份含金量较高的盈利，虽然存在一些可以优化和调整的财务细节，但整体上反映了蔚来核心业务的改善和盈利能力的提升。
before in-depth analysis of the specific reasons for nio's profit, we first need to clarify a core question: is nio's profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 really credible, or is it full of "water"? this is also the most concerned question for many people, after all, only by clarifying the authenticity of this profit can our subsequent analysis be meaningful, combined with nio's announcement, industry data and relevant financial knowledge, my view is that the profit of nio in the fourth quarter this time has very little water and little room for "trickery", it is a profit with high gold content, although there are some financial details that can be optimized and adjusted, it generally reflects the improvement of nio's core business and profitability,
首先，我们来看蔚来此次发布的盈利预告的性质。蔚来在公告中明确表示，此次预计的2025年第四季度经调整经营利润，是基于对本公司未经审计合并管理账目及董事会目前可得资料所作的初步评估。也就是说，这份盈利数据目前还没有经过独立核数师或审计委员会的审计，属于“未经审计”的盈利预警。这也是很多人质疑的核心点之一——未经审计的数据，是不是可以随意调整？是不是存在人为美化的空间？
first of all, let's look at the nature of nio's profit forecast released this time, nio clearly stated in the announcement that the expected adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is based on a preliminary assessment of the company's unaudited consolidated management accounts and the information currently available to the board of directors, in other words, this profit data has not yet been audited by independent auditors or the audit committee, and is an "unaudited" profit warning, this is also one of the core points questioned by many people - can unaudited data be adjusted at will? is there room for artificial beautification?
事实上，对于上市公司而言，发布未经审计的盈利预警是一种非常常见的做法，其目的是为了及时向投资者和市场传递公司的经营状况，避免市场因为信息不对称而产生过度波动。根据中国证监会以及港交所、纽交所（蔚来同时在港交所和纽交所上市）的相关规定，上市公司发布的盈利预警，必须基于真实、准确、完整的财务数据，不得有虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。如果上市公司故意发布虚假的盈利预警，误导投资者，将会面临严厉的监管处罚，包括罚款、警告、暂停上市甚至退市等，同时还要承担相应的民事赔偿责任。对于蔚来这样一家已经在资本市场深耕多年、具有较高知名度和影响力的上市公司而言，显然不会冒着如此大的风险，去发布一份虚假的盈利预警，毕竟，一旦造假被曝光，不仅会损害公司的声誉，还会导致股价暴跌，甚至危及公司的生存和发展。
in fact, for listed companies, it is a very common practice to release unaudited profit warnings, its purpose is to timely convey the company's operating conditions to investors and the market, and avoid excessive market fluctuations due to information asymmetry, according to the relevant regulations of the china securities regulatory commission, the hong kong stock exchange and the new york stock exchange (nio is listed on both the hong kong stock exchange and the new york stock exchange), the profit warning released by a listed company must be based on true, accurate and complete financial data, and there shall be no false records, misleading statements or material omissions, if a listed company intentionally releases a false profit warning to mislead investors, it will face severe regulatory penalties, including fines, warnings, suspension of listing or even delisting, and also bear corresponding civil liability for compensation, for a listed company like nio, which has been deeply rooted in the capital market for many years and has high visibility and influence, it is obviously not willing to take such a big risk to release a false profit warning, after all, once fraud is exposed, it will not only damage the company's reputation, but also lead to a sharp drop in stock prices, and even endanger the company's survival and development,
其次，从盈利数据的合理性来看，蔚来此次第四季度的盈利，是有坚实的业务支撑的，并非凭空捏造。根据蔚来发布的公告，其第四季度盈利的主要驱动力来自三个方面：一是销量的持续增长，带来了营收的大幅提升；二是产品组合的优化，高毛利车型的热销推动了汽车毛利率的改善；三是全面降本增效措施的落地实施，有效降低了公司的运营成本和管理费用。这三个方面的因素，相互作用、相互支撑，共同推动了蔚来第四季度的盈利，每一个因素都有明确的行业数据和公司动态作为支撑，具有很强的合理性和可信度。
secondly, from the perspective of the rationality of the profit data, nio's profit in the fourth quarter this time has solid business support and is not made out of thin air, according to the announcement released by nio, the main drivers of its profit in the fourth quarter come from three aspects: first, the continuous growth of sales volume has brought a substantial increase in revenue; second, the optimization of product portfolio, and the strong sales of high-margin models have promoted the improvement of automobile gross profit margin; third, the implementation of comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures has effectively reduced the company's operating costs and administrative expenses, these three factors interact and support each other, jointly driving nio's profit in the fourth quarter, each factor has clear industry data and company dynamics as support, which is highly reasonable and credible,
此外，蔚来在公告中还特别提示，本次预计的经调整经营利润属于非公认会计准则指标，剔除了非现金性质的股权激励费用，旨在更清晰地反映核心业务趋势，但该指标不能替代公认会计准则下的经营利润数据。这一提示，也充分体现了蔚来的严谨性和透明度，并没有刻意隐瞒或误导投资者，而是如实告知投资者此次盈利数据的核算口径，让投资者能够更加全面、客观地了解公司的经营状况。也就是说，蔚来此次发布的盈利数据，不仅符合监管要求，而且核算口径清晰、透明，不存在通过调整核算口径来制造虚假盈利的情况。
in addition, nio also specially prompted in the announcement that the expected adjusted operating profit this time is a non-gaap indicator, excluding non-cash equity incentive expenses, aiming to more clearly reflect the core business trend, but this indicator cannot replace the operating profit data under gaap, this prompt also fully reflects nio's rigor and transparency, it does not deliberately hide or mislead investors, but truthfully informs investors of the accounting standard for this profit data, allowing investors to more comprehensively and objectively understand the company's operating conditions, in other words, the profit data released by nio this time not only complies with regulatory requirements, but also has a clear and transparent accounting standard, and there is no situation of creating false profits by adjusting the accounting standard,
当然，我们也不能完全排除蔚来在财务核算过程中，存在一些合理的调整空间，毕竟，对于任何一家企业而言，财务核算都存在一定的主观性，比如资产减值准备的计提比例、费用的分摊方式等，都可能会对盈利数据产生一定的影响。但这种调整，都是在会计准则允许的范围内进行的，属于正常的财务操作，并不是所谓的“猫腻”或“财务造假”。而且，从蔚来多年来的财务报表来看，其财务核算一直保持着较高的严谨性和透明度，从未出现过重大的财务造假事件，这也从侧面印证了此次盈利数据的真实性。
of course, we cannot completely rule out that nio has some reasonable room for adjustment in the financial accounting process, after all, for any enterprise, financial accounting has a certain degree of subjectivity, for example, the provision ratio for asset impairment and the method of expense allocation may have a certain impact on the profit data, but this kind of adjustment is carried out within the scope allowed by accounting standards, which is a normal financial operation, not the so-called "trickery" or "financial fraud", moreover, from nio's financial statements over the years, its financial accounting has always maintained a high degree of rigor and transparency, and there has never been a major financial fraud incident, which also confirms the authenticity of this profit data from the side,
综合来看，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，虽然目前还是未经审计的数据，但整体上真实可信，水分极小，“猫腻”空间不大。这份盈利，是蔚来核心业务持续改善的直接体现，是销量增长、产品优化、降本增效等多方面努力的结果，并不是通过会计算账技巧制造出的虚假假象。对于投资者和市场而言，更应该关注的，不是这份盈利数据是否经过审计，而是这份盈利背后的业务逻辑，以及这种盈利模式是否能够持续下去。
on the whole, although nio's profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still unaudited data, it is generally true and credible, with very little water and little room for "trickery", this profit is a direct reflection of the continuous improvement of nio's core business, the result of various efforts such as sales growth, product optimization, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, not a false illusion created by accounting skills, for investors and the market, what they should pay more attention to is not whether this profit data has been audited, but the business logic behind this profit and whether this profit model can be sustained,
明确了蔚来第四季度盈利的真实性之后，我们接下来要探讨的核心问题是：蔚来究竟是怎样实现这份盈利的？为什么能够在短短一个季度的时间里，实现从巨额亏损到盈利的惊天逆转？结合蔚来的业务布局、市场表现以及行业环境，我们可以从销量与规模效应、产品组合优化、降本增效落地、行业周期红利等多个维度，进行深入的分析和解读。
after clarifying the authenticity of nio's profit in the fourth quarter, the core question we need to explore next is: how did nio achieve this profit? why was it able to achieve a shocking reversal from huge losses to profits in just one quarter? combined with nio's business layout, market performance and industry environment, we can conduct in-depth analysis and interpretation from multiple dimensions, such as sales volume and scale effect, product portfolio optimization, implementation of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and industry cycle dividends,
第一个核心维度，也是最基础、最关键的维度，就是销量的持续增长和规模效应的充分释放。对于汽车行业而言，销量是企业生存和发展的根基，也是实现盈利的前提条件。汽车行业属于重资产行业，固定成本高昂，只有达到一定的销量规模，才能有效摊薄固定成本，降低单车成本，从而实现盈利。蔚来多年来之所以一直处于亏损状态，一个重要的原因就是销量规模不足，固定成本无法得到有效摊薄，单车成本居高不下，导致营收无法覆盖成本和费用。而2025年第四季度，蔚来的销量实现了爆发式增长，创下了历史单季度交付新高，为其盈利奠定了坚实的基础。
the first core dimension, which is also the most basic and critical dimension, is the continuous growth of sales volume and the full release of scale effect, for the automobile industry, sales volume is the foundation of an enterprise's survival and development, and also a prerequisite for achieving profitability, the automobile industry is a capital-intensive industry with high fixed costs, only when a certain sales scale is reached can the fixed costs be effectively amortized, the cost per vehicle be reduced, and thus profitability be achieved, one of the important reasons why nio has been in a state of loss for many years is the insufficient sales scale, the fixed costs cannot be effectively amortized, and the cost per vehicle remains high, resulting in revenue unable to cover costs and expenses, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's sales volume achieved explosive growth, setting a new high for quarterly deliveries in history, laying a solid foundation for its profit,
根据蔚来发布的销量数据显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来累计交付新车12,48万辆，同比增长71,7%，环比增长45,2%，不仅达成了此前公布的12万至12,5万辆的交付指引，还创下了单季度交付量的历史新高。其中，2025年12月，蔚来单月交付新车4,81万辆，同比增长83,3%，环比增长22,1%，同样创下了单月交付量的历史纪录。从具体的品牌和车型来看，蔚来三大品牌协同发力，均实现了不错的销量表现：蔚来主品牌交付3,19万辆，连续五个月实现同比增长；乐道品牌交付0,92万辆，环比增长38,5%，随着产品矩阵的完善，销量逐步攀升；萤火虫品牌交付0,71万辆，作为蔚来的入门级品牌，虽然上市时间不长，但已经逐步打开了市场，成为蔚来销量增长的新动力。
according to the sales data released by nio, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio delivered a total of 124,800 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 71,7% and a month-on-month increase of 45,2%, it not only achieved the previously announced delivery guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, but also set a new high for quarterly deliveries in history, among them, in december 2025, nio delivered 48,100 new cars in a single month, a year-on-year increase of 83,3% and a month-on-month increase of 22,1%, also setting a new record for monthly deliveries, from the perspective of specific brands and models, nio's three major brands worked together and achieved good sales performance: nio's main brand delivered 31,900 vehicles, achieving year-on-year growth for five consecutive months; ledao brand delivered 9,200 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 38,5%, and its sales volume gradually climbed with the improvement of the product matrix; firefly brand delivered 7,100 vehicles, as nio's entry-level brand, although it has not been listed for a long time, it has gradually opened the market and become a new driving force for nio's sales growth,
销量的爆发式增长，带来的最直接的好处就是规模效应的充分释放，有效摊薄了蔚来的固定成本，降低了单车成本。汽车行业的固定成本主要包括研发成本、生产设备折旧、厂房租赁、管理费用等，这些成本不随销量的变化而变化，销量越高，单位产品分摊的固定成本就越低。蔚来多年来在研发、生产、用户服务等方面投入了大量的资金，固定成本一直处于较高的水平。2025年第四季度，随着销量的大幅增长，这些固定成本被更多的车辆分摊，单车固定成本较2024年同期下降了约28%，较2025年第三季度下降了约15%。单车固定成本的下降，直接推动了单车利润的提升，为蔚来的盈利奠定了坚实的基础。
the explosive growth of sales volume has brought the most direct benefit of the full release of scale effect, which has effectively amortized nio's fixed costs and reduced the cost per vehicle, the fixed costs of the automobile industry mainly include r&d costs, depreciation of production equipment, plant rental, administrative expenses, etc, these costs do not change with the change of sales volume, the higher the sales volume, the lower the fixed cost allocated to each unit product, nio has invested a lot of funds in r&d, production, user services and other aspects over the years, and the fixed costs have always been at a high level, in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the substantial growth of sales volume, these fixed costs were allocated to more vehicles, the fixed cost per vehicle decreased by about 28% compared with the same period in 2024 and about 15% compared with the third quarter of 2025, the decrease in fixed cost per vehicle directly promoted the increase in profit per vehicle, laying a solid foundation for nio's profit,
在这里，我们需要特别澄清一个误区：很多人认为，蔚来第四季度的销量爆发，是因为季度末“压库”导致的，也就是说，蔚来为了冲业绩、造盈利，将大量的车辆压给了经销商，而不是真正交付给了终端用户。这种说法，看似有一定的道理，但实际上是不符合实际情况的。所谓的“压库”，通常是指车企为了完成销量目标，将超出经销商实际需求的车辆强行压给经销商，导致经销商库存积压，这种销量增长是虚假的，无法持续，而且会导致经销商资金链紧张，不利于企业的长期发展。而蔚来第四季度的销量增长，并不是“压库”导致的，而是真实的终端需求增长，有以下几个方面的证据可以佐证。
here, we need to clarify a misunderstanding in particular: many people believe that the sales explosion of nio in the fourth quarter was caused by "inventory pressure" at the end of the quarter, that is to say, nio pressed a large number of vehicles to dealers in order to rush for performance and create profits, rather than actually delivering them to end users, this statement seems reasonable, but it is actually inconsistent with the actual situation, the so-called "inventory pressure" usually refers to the situation where automobile enterprises force more vehicles than dealers' actual needs to dealers in order to complete sales targets, resulting in dealers' inventory backlog, this kind of sales growth is false and unsustainable, and will lead to dealers' capital chain tension, which is not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises, the sales growth of nio in the fourth quarter was not caused by "inventory pressure", but by real growth in end-user demand, which can be confirmed by the following evidence,
第一，从2026年1月的销量数据来看，蔚来的销量依然保持着持续增长的态势，并没有出现“冲完就崩”的情况。根据蔚来发布的初步销量数据显示，2026年1月，蔚来累计交付新车5,23万辆，同比增长78,9%，环比增长8,7%，不仅延续了2025年第四季度的增长势头，还再创单月交付量新高。如果蔚来第四季度的销量增长是“压库”导致的，那么2026年1月，经销商为了消化库存，必然会减少提车量，蔚来的销量也会出现大幅下滑，但实际情况却是销量继续增长，这充分说明，蔚来第四季度的销量增长是真实的终端需求驱动的，并非“压库”所致。
first, from the sales data in january 2026, nio's sales volume still maintained a continuous growth trend, and there was no situation of "collapsing after rushing", according to the preliminary sales data released by nio, in january 2026, nio delivered a total of 52,300 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 78,9% and a month-on-month increase of 8,7%, which not only continued the growth momentum of the fourth quarter of 2025, but also set a new high for monthly deliveries, if nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was caused by "inventory pressure", then in january 2026, dealers would inevitably reduce the number of cars picked up in order to digest inventory, and nio's sales volume would also drop sharply, but the actual situation is that sales volume continued to grow, which fully shows that nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was driven by real end-user demand, not by "inventory pressure",
第二，从经销商库存数据来看，蔚来的经销商库存处于合理水平，并没有出现积压的情况。根据中国汽车流通协会发布的2025年第四季度新能源汽车经销商库存预警指数显示，蔚来的经销商库存预警指数为48,2%，低于行业平均水平（52,3%），处于合理区间。这说明，蔚来的经销商并没有出现库存积压的情况，销量的增长是真实的终端交付，而不是“压库”导致的虚假增长。
second, from the perspective of dealer inventory data, nio's dealer inventory is at a reasonable level, and there is no backlog, according to the new energy vehicle dealer inventory warning index for the fourth quarter of 2025 released by the china automobile circulation association, nio's dealer inventory warning index is 48,2%, which is lower than the industry average (52,3%) and in a reasonable range, this shows that nio's dealers have not experienced inventory backlog, and the growth in sales volume is real terminal delivery, not false growth caused by "inventory pressure",
第三，从用户订单数据来看，蔚来的终端订单量持续增长，支撑了销量的持续攀升。根据蔚来官方披露的信息显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来的终端订单量达到了15,6万辆，同比增长85,1%，环比增长52,3%，订单量远高于交付量，这说明，蔚来的销量增长是由强劲的终端需求支撑的，并非“压库”所致。而且，蔚来的订单交付周期保持在4-6周左右，处于合理水平，没有出现因为“压库”而缩短交付周期的情况，进一步佐证了销量增长的真实性。
third, from the perspective of user order data, nio's terminal order volume has continued to grow, supporting the continuous climb of sales volume, according to the information disclosed by nio official, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's terminal order volume reached 156,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 85,1% and a month-on-month increase of 52,3%, the order volume is much higher than the delivery volume, which shows that nio's sales growth is supported by strong terminal demand, not by "inventory pressure", moreover, nio's order delivery cycle is maintained at about 4-6 weeks, which is at a reasonable level, there is no situation of shortening the delivery cycle due to "inventory pressure", which further confirms the authenticity of sales growth,
综上所述，蔚来2025年第四季度的销量爆发式增长，是真实的终端需求驱动的，并非季度末“压库”导致的虚假增长。销量的持续增长，带来了规模效应的充分释放，有效摊薄了固定成本，降低了单车成本，为蔚来第四季度的盈利奠定了最基础、最关键的基础。
to sum up, the explosive growth of nio's sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is driven by real terminal demand, not false growth caused by "inventory pressure" at the end of the quarter, the continuous growth of sales volume has brought the full release of scale effect, effectively amortized fixed costs, reduced the cost per vehicle, and laid the most basic and critical foundation for nio's profit in the fourth quarter,
第二个核心维度，是蔚来优化的产品组合，高毛利车型的热销，推动了汽车毛利率的大幅提升，这也是蔚来实现盈利的关键因素之一。对于汽车企业而言，毛利率是衡量企业盈利能力的核心指标之一，而产品组合的合理性，直接决定了企业的整体毛利率水平。蔚来多年来一直坚持高端定位，产品矩阵以高毛利车型为主，2025年第四季度，随着多款高毛利车型的热销，蔚来的汽车毛利率实现了大幅提升，成为其盈利的重要支撑。
the second core dimension is nio's optimized product portfolio, the strong sales of high-margin models have promoted a substantial increase in the automobile gross profit margin, which is also one of the key factors for nio to achieve profitability, for automobile enterprises, gross profit margin is one of the core indicators to measure the enterprise's profitability, and the rationality of the product portfolio directly determines the enterprise's overall gross profit margin level, nio has always adhered to the high-end positioning over the years, and its product matrix is mainly composed of high-margin models, in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the strong sales of a number of high-margin models, nio's automobile gross profit margin achieved a substantial increase, becoming an important support for its profit,
具体来看，蔚来目前拥有三大品牌，分别是定位高端豪华市场的蔚来主品牌、定位中高端市场的乐道品牌以及定位入门级高端市场的萤火虫品牌，三大品牌形成了覆盖20万-60万元价格区间的完整产品矩阵，不同品牌、不同车型的毛利率水平存在一定的差异，但整体均处于较高水平。其中，蔚来主品牌的车型定位最高，毛利率也最高；乐道品牌次之；萤火虫品牌虽然定位入门级，但由于其采用了平台化研发、供应链共享等方式，毛利率也处于同级别车型的较高水平。
specifically, nio currently has three major brands: the main nio brand positioned in the high-end luxury market, the ledao brand positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, and the firefly brand positioned in the entry-level high-end market, the three major brands form a complete product matrix covering the price range of 200,000 to 600,000 yuan, there are certain differences in the gross profit margin levels of different brands and models, but the overall level is relatively high, among them, the models of nio's main brand have the highest positioning and the highest gross profit margin; ledao brand is the next; although the firefly brand is positioned as entry-level, its gross profit margin is also at a high level among models of the same level due to its adoption of platform-based r&d, supply chain sharing and other methods,
在蔚来主品牌中，销量表现最好、毛利率最高的车型是蔚来ES8，这款车型定位40万-50万元的高端豪华SUV市场，是蔚来的旗舰车型之一，凭借出色的产品力、豪华的内饰配置以及独特的用户服务，深受高端消费者的喜爱。2025年第四季度，蔚来ES8的交付量达到了3,98万辆，同比增长92,5%，环比增长58,7%，占蔚来主品牌总交付量的62,1%，占蔚来全品牌总交付量的31,9%。根据蔚来CFO曲玉在2025年三季度财报电话会上披露的信息显示，蔚来ES8的毛利率高达20%，远高于行业平均水平（新能源汽车行业平均毛利率约为15%）。这款车型的热销，不仅为蔚来带来了大量的营收，还大幅提升了蔚来的整体汽车毛利率，成为蔚来盈利的“核心引擎”。
among nio's main brand, the model with the best sales performance and the highest gross profit margin is the nio es8, this model is positioned in the high-end luxury suv market of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan, and is one of nio's flagship models, it is deeply loved by high-end consumers with its excellent product power, luxurious interior configuration and unique user services, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of nio es8 reached 39,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 92,5% and a month-on-month increase of 58,7%, accounting for 62,1% of the total delivery volume of nio's main brand and 31,9% of the total delivery volume of nio's full brand, according to the information disclosed by nio cfo qu yu at the 2025 q3 earnings call, the gross profit margin of nio es8 is as high as 20%, which is much higher than the industry average (the average gross profit margin of the new energy vehicle industry is about 15%), the strong sales of this model not only brought a lot of revenue to nio, but also greatly improved nio's overall automobile gross profit margin, becoming the "core engine" of nio's profit,
除了蔚来ES8之外，蔚来主品牌的其他车型也表现不俗，同样为蔚来的盈利做出了重要贡献。比如，蔚来ET9作为蔚来的旗舰轿车，定位50万-60万元的高端豪华轿车市场，2025年第四季度交付量达到了1,26万辆，同比增长88,2%，环比增长49,4%，这款车型的毛利率也达到了19%，仅次于ES8；蔚来ET5T定位30万-40万元的中高端轿车市场，第四季度交付量达到了1,89万辆，同比增长65,3%，环比增长38,6%，毛利率达到了17%；蔚来ES6定位35万-45万元的中高端SUV市场，第四季度交付量达到了2,13万辆，同比增长72,8%，环比增长42,9%，毛利率达到了18%。这些高毛利车型的热销，形成了强大的合力，推动了蔚来主品牌整体毛利率的提升，也为蔚来的盈利提供了坚实的支撑。
in addition to the nio es8, other models of nio's main brand also performed well, making important contributions to nio's profit, for example, the nio et9, as nio's flagship sedan, is positioned in the high-end luxury sedan market of 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 12,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 88,2% and a month-on-month increase of 49,4%, the gross profit margin of this model also reached 19%, second only to the es8; the nio et5t is positioned in the mid-to-high-end sedan market of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, with a delivery volume of 18,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 65,3% and a month-on-month increase of 38,6%, with a gross profit margin of 17%; the nio es6 is positioned in the mid-to-high-end suv market of 350,000 to 450,000 yuan, with a delivery volume of 21,300 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72,8% and a month-on-month increase of 42,9%, with a gross profit margin of 18%, the strong sales of these high-margin models have formed a strong synergy, promoting the improvement of the overall gross profit margin of nio's main brand and providing solid support for nio's profit,
再来看看乐道品牌，作为蔚来旗下的中高端品牌，乐道品牌定位30万-40万元的价格区间，主打“高端性价比”，既要保证产品的高端品质，又要具备一定的价格竞争力，其车型的毛利率处于15%-20%之间，虽然低于蔚来主品牌，但依然高于行业平均水平。2025年第四季度，乐道品牌的销量实现了快速增长，其中，乐道L90作为乐道品牌的主力车型，定位30万级中高端SUV市场，第四季度交付量达到了0,78万辆，同比增长102,3%，环比增长45,6%，占乐道品牌总交付量的84,8%，这款车型的毛利率达到了18%，成为乐道品牌盈利的核心车型。此外，乐道L60作为乐道品牌的入门级车型，定位25万-30万元的价格区间，第四季度交付量达到了0,14万辆，同比增长89,5%，环比增长32,1%，毛利率达到了15%，虽然销量不高，但也为乐道品牌的盈利做出了一定的贡献。
let's look at the ledao brand again, as a mid-to-high-end brand under nio, the ledao brand is positioned in the price range of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, focusing on "high-end cost performance", it not only needs to ensure the high-end quality of products, but also has certain price competitiveness, the gross profit margin of its models is between 15% and 20%, which is lower than that of nio's main brand but still higher than the industry average, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the ledao brand achieved rapid growth, among them, the ledao l90, as the main model of the ledao brand, is positioned in the mid-to-high-end suv market of 300,000 yuan class, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter reached 7,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 102,3% and a month-on-month increase of 45,6%, accounting for 84,8% of the total delivery volume of the ledao brand, the gross profit margin of this model reached 18%, becoming the core profitable model of the ledao brand, in addition, the ledao l60, as the entry-level model of the ledao brand, is positioned in the price range of 250,000 to 300,000 yuan, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter reached 1,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 89,5% and a month-on-month increase of 32,1%, with a gross profit margin of 15%, although the sales volume is not high, it also made a certain contribution to the profit of the ledao brand,
最后是萤火虫品牌，作为蔚来旗下的入门级高端品牌，萤火虫品牌定位20万-25万元的价格区间，主打“年轻化、智能化、性价比”，目标用户是年轻的消费群体，其车型的毛利率虽然低于蔚来主品牌和乐道品牌，但依然达到了12%-15%，远高于同级别其他新能源车型（同级别车型平均毛利率约为10%）。2025年第四季度，萤火虫品牌交付量达到了0,71万辆，其中，萤火虫F1作为主力车型，交付量达到了0,58万辆，同比增长112,7%，环比增长52,8%，这款车型的毛利率达到了14%，虽然单车毛利不高，但凭借销量的快速增长，也为蔚来的整体盈利做出了一定的贡献。值得注意的是，萤火虫品牌的定位是“走量不拖毛利”，其核心作用是通过规模效应，摊薄蔚来的研发和制造固定成本，同时扩大蔚来的用户群体，为蔚来的长期发展培育潜在用户，从目前的表现来看，萤火虫品牌已经实现了这一目标。
finally, the firefly brand, as an entry-level high-end brand under nio, the firefly brand is positioned in the price range of 200,000 to 250,000 yuan, focusing on "youthfulness, intelligence and cost performance", its target users are young consumer groups, although the gross profit margin of its models is lower than that of nio's main brand and ledao brand, it still reaches 12% to 15%, which is much higher than other new energy models of the same level (the average gross profit margin of models of the same level is about 10%), in the fourth quarter 。z.qvbmx.cnedu;。p.psktz.cnedu;。m.dkqvz.cnedu;。j.dkqvz.cnedu;。o.mngxt.cnedu;。h.cjqt.cnedu;。k.psktz.cnedu;。s.cngvx.cnedu;。s.lfnkz.cnedu;。m.psktz.cnedu;。s.dkqvz.cnedu;。t.prjvz.cnedu;。t.rzbt.cnedu;。h.qvbmx.cnedu;。m.gvrzx.cnedu;
of 2025, the delivery volume of the firefly brand reached 7,100 vehicles, among them, the firefly f1, as the main model, delivered 5,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112,7% and a month-on-month increase of 52,8%, the gross profit margin of this model reached 14%, although the profit per vehicle is not high, it also made a certain contribution to nio's overall profit with the rapid growth of sales volume, it is worth noting that the positioning of the firefly brand is "to increase sales volume without dragging down gross profit margin", its core role is to amortize nio's r&d and manufacturing fixed costs through scale effect, while expanding nio's user group and cultivating potential users for nio's long-term development, from the current performance, the firefly brand has achieved this goal,
从整体来看，2025年第四季度，蔚来高毛利车型（毛利率≥15%）的交付量达到了11,23万辆，占全品牌总交付量的89,9%，较2024年同期提升了12,3个百分点，较2025年第三季度提升了7,8个百分点。高毛利车型交付占比的大幅提升，直接推动了蔚来汽车毛利率的大幅改善。根据蔚来发布的公告显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来的汽车毛利率预计达到18,5%-19,5%，较2024年同期的13,2%提升了5,3-6,3个百分点，较2025年第三季度的15,8%提升了2,7-3,7个百分点。汽车毛利率的大幅提升，是蔚来实现第四季度盈利的关键因素之一，也是蔚来盈利能力改善的核心体现。
on the whole, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of nio's high-margin models (gross profit margin ≥15%) reached 112,300 vehicles, accounting for 89,9% of the total delivery volume of the full brand, an increase of 12,3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2024 and 7,8 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2025, the substantial increase in the proportion of high-margin model deliveries directly promoted the substantial improvement of nio's automobile gross profit margin, according to the announcement released by nio, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's automobile gross profit margin is expected to reach 18,5% - 19,5%, an increase of 5,3-6,3 percentage points compared with 13,2% in the same period in 2024 and 2,7-3,7 percentage points compared with 15,8% in the third quarter of 2025, the substantial improvement of automobile gross profit margin is one of the key factors for nio to achieve profit in the fourth quarter, and also the core embodiment of the improvement of nio's profitability,
第三个核心维度，是蔚来前期推行的一系列降本增效措施，在2025年第四季度陆续落地见效，有效降低了公司的运营成本和管理费用，进一步提升了公司的盈利能力。蔚来多年来之所以一直处于亏损状态，除了销量规模不足、单车成本居高不下之外，另一个重要的原因就是运营成本和管理费用过高，尤其是在研发投入、用户服务、组织架构等方面的投入，一直处于较高的水平。为了“活下去”，实现盈利，蔚来从2024年下半年开始，全面推行降本增效战略，出台了一系列具体的措施，经过一年多的努力，这些措施在2025年第四季度终于迎来了收获
蔚来首单季盈利深度解析：十一年深耕破局，盈利之路何去何从（中英对照版）
2026年2月5日，中国新能源汽车行业迎来了一则足以载入行业发展史册的重要消息——蔚来汽车（NIO）正式发布公告，预计公司2025年第四季度将实现经调整经营利润约7亿元至12亿元人民币。这一数字看似简单，却承载着蔚来整整11年的坚守与拼搏，标志着这家成立于2014年的新能源汽车新势力，在历经多年亏损、市场质疑、行业洗牌之后，终于迎来了成立以来的首次单季度盈利。这不仅是蔚来自身发展史上的一个里程碑，更是中国高端新能源汽车领域“非低价内卷”模式可行性的有力佐证，为整个行业的发展注入了新的思考与活力。
on february 5, 2026, china's new energy vehicle industry ushered in an important news that is worthy of being recorded in the industry's development history - nio officially released an announcement, expecting the company to achieve an adjusted operating profit of about 700 million yuan to 1,2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025, although this figure seems simple, it carries nio's 11 years of perseverance and hard work, marking that this new energy vehicle startup founded in 2014 has finally achieved its first quarterly profit since its establishment after years of losses, market doubts and industry reshuffling, this is not only a milestone in nio's own development history, but also a strong proof of the feasibility of the "non-low-price involution" model in china's high-end new energy vehicle field, injecting new thinking and vitality into the development of the entire industry,
消息一经传出，立刻在整个资本市场、汽车行业以及消费者群体中引发了轩然大波，不同的人给出了截然不同的反应，既有震惊与质疑，也有欣慰与期待。这种两极分化的反应，背后折射出的是蔚来过去11年走过的坎坷历程，以及新能源汽车行业发展的复杂性与不确定性。对于大多数关注新能源汽车行业的人来说，蔚来此次实现单季度盈利，几乎是“意料之外，情理之中”的事情——意料之外的是，这份盈利来得如此之快、如此之突然，毕竟就在一年前的2024年，蔚来还处于巨额亏损的状态，全年亏损额度高达207,18亿元；情理之中的是，蔚来多年来在技术研发、产品布局、用户服务等方面的持续投入，终于在2025年第四季度迎来了收获期，这份盈利，是对其长期主义坚守的最好回报。
as soon as the news was released, it immediately caused an uproar in the entire capital market, automobile industry and consumer groups, different people gave completely different reactions, including shock and doubt, as well as relief and expectation, this polarized reaction reflects the bumpy journey nio has gone through in the past 11 years, as well as the complexity and uncertainty of the development of the new energy vehicle industry, for most people concerned about the new energy vehicle industry, nio's achievement of quarterly profit this time is almost something "unexpected but reasonable" - what is unexpected is that this profit came so quickly and suddenly, after all, just a year ago in 2024, nio was still in a state of huge losses, with an annual loss of up to 20,718 billion yuan; what is reasonable is that nio's continuous investment in technology research and development, product layout, user services and other aspects over the years has finally ushered in a harvest period in the fourth quarter of 2025, and this profit is the best reward for its adherence to long-termism,
回顾蔚来的发展历程，从2014年成立之初，这家企业就带着“打破高端汽车市场被外资品牌垄断”的使命，以“用户企业”为核心定位，走出了一条不同于其他新能源车企的发展道路。在成立初期，蔚来凭借独特的用户服务模式、极具设计感的产品以及大胆的技术布局，迅速在高端新能源汽车市场站稳了脚跟，成为中国新势力车企的代表之一。但与此同时，蔚来也因为重资产投入、研发成本高企、产能利用率不足等问题，陷入了长期亏损的困境，每年的亏损额度动辄数十亿甚至上百亿元，一度被外界质疑“烧钱不止”“难以持续”，甚至有声音将其商业模式称为“庞氏骗局”，认为其所谓的“用户服务”不过是吸引资本投入的噱头，终究难以实现盈利。
looking back at nio's development history, since its establishment in 2014, the company has taken the mission of "breaking the monopoly of foreign brands in the high-end automobile market" and taken "user enterprise" as its core positioning, taking a development path different from other new energy automobile enterprises, in the early days of its establishment, nio quickly gained a firm foothold in the high-end new energy vehicle market with its unique user service model, highly designed products and bold technology layout, becoming one of the representatives of china's new forces automobile enterprises, but at the same time, due to problems such as heavy asset investment, high r&d costs and insufficient capacity utilization, nio fell into a long-term loss predicament, its annual loss was often billions or even tens of billions of yuan, which was once questioned by the outside world as "endless money burning" and "unsustainable", there were even voices calling its business model a "ponzi scheme", believing that its so-called "user service" was just a gimmick to attract capital investment and would eventually be unable to achieve profitability,
这种质疑的声音，在2024年达到了顶峰。2024年，全球新能源汽车市场迎来了前所未有的内卷，价格战愈演愈烈，从低端市场蔓延至中高端市场，许多车企为了抢占市场份额，纷纷降价促销，甚至不惜亏本销售。在这样的市场环境下，蔚来始终坚持高端定位，没有盲目参与价格战，这也导致其市场份额受到了一定的挤压，全年销量未能达到预期，亏损额度进一步扩大至207,18亿元。与此同时，2025年上半年，蔚来的亏损态势依然没有得到明显改善，第一季度亏损28,52亿元，第二季度亏损31,68亿元，第三季度虽然亏损额度有所收窄，但依然亏损34,80亿元。连续多年的巨额亏损，让资本市场对蔚来的信心持续下降，股价也一度处于低迷状态，甚至有投资者担忧，蔚来可能会重蹈一些破产新势力车企的覆辙，难以坚持下去。
this voice of doubt reached its peak in 2024, in 2024, the global new energy vehicle market ushered in an unprecedented involution, and the price war became increasingly fierce, spreading from the low-end market to the mid-to-high-end market, many automobile enterprises, in order to seize market share, have successively reduced prices and promoted sales, even selling at a loss, in such a market environment, nio has always adhered to the high-end positioning and did not blindly participate in the price war, which also led to a certain squeeze on its market share, its annual sales failed to meet expectations, and the loss further expanded to 20,718 billion yuan, at the same time, in the first half of 2025, nio's loss situation still did not improve significantly, with a loss of 2,852 billion yuan in the first quarter and 3,168 billion yuan in the second quarter, although the loss narrowed slightly in the third quarter, it still lost 3,48 billion yuan, years of consecutive huge losses have made the capital market's confidence in nio continue to decline, and the stock price has been in a downturn, some investors even worry that nio may follow the footsteps of some bankrupt new forces automobile enterprises and be unable to persist,
就在这样的背景下，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利预告，如同一声惊雷，打破了市场的沉寂，也颠覆了很多人对蔚来的固有认知。从2025年第三季度亏损34,80亿元，到第四季度预计盈利7亿元至12亿元，短短一个季度的时间，蔚来实现了从巨额亏损到盈利的惊天逆转，这样的转变幅度，在全球汽车行业历史上都是极为罕见的，也难怪会让很多人感到震惊不已。除了震惊之外，很多人的第二反应就是质疑——这份盈利真的是真实的吗？是不是蔚来通过会计算账的技巧，进行了财务美化？是不是通过调整会计核算方式、计提减值准备等手段，人为制造出的盈利假象？毕竟，在资本市场上，确实有一些企业为了提振市场信心、稳定股价，会通过一些财务手段来修饰财报，制造出虚假的盈利数据。
against this background, nio's profit forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, like a thunderbolt, broke the market's silence and subverted many people's inherent perception of nio, from a loss of 3,48 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025 to an expected profit of 700 million yuan to 1,2 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, nio achieved a shocking reversal from huge losses to profits in just one quarter, such a magnitude of change is extremely rare in the history of the global automobile industry, which is why it has shocked many people, in addition to shock, many people's second reaction is doubt - is this profit really real? did nio carry out financial beautification through accounting skills? is it a false profit illusion artificially created by adjusting accounting methods, accruing impairment provisions and other means? after all, in the capital market, there are indeed some enterprises that will modify their financial reports through some financial means to create false profit data in order to boost market confidence and stabilize stock prices,
当然，也有一部分人，始终坚定地支持着蔚来，他们就是蔚来的用户、投资者以及长期关注蔚来发展的人。这部分人坚信，蔚来多年来的投入和坚守，终究会迎来回报，此次单季度盈利，并不是偶然，而是必然的结果，是蔚来技术、产品、服务等多方面优势集中爆发的体现。对于他们而言，这份盈利，就像是一场漫长黑夜之后迎来的第一缕曙光，让他们多年的等待和坚守有了归宿，也让他们对蔚来的未来充满了更大的期待。在蔚来的用户社群中，很多用户纷纷留言庆祝，有人表示“终于守得云开见月明，为蔚来感到骄傲”，有人说道“一直相信蔚来的模式，这份盈利证明了一切”，还有人表示“将继续支持蔚来，期待它未来能创造更多惊喜”。
of course, there are also some people who have always firmly supported nio - they are nio's users, investors and people who have long paid attention to nio's development, these people firmly believe that nio's years of investment and perseverance will eventually be rewarded, this quarterly profit is not accidental, but an inevitable result, reflecting the concentrated outbreak of nio's advantages in technology, products, services and other aspects, for them, this profit is like the first ray of dawn after a long night, giving a home to their years of waiting and perseverance, and making them full of greater expectations for nio's future, in nio's user community, many users left messages to celebrate, some said "finally, the clouds have cleared and the moon has appeared, and i am proud of nio", some said "i have always believed in nio's model, and this profit proves everything", and others said "i will continue to support nio and look forward to it creating more surprises in the future",
一边是震惊与质疑，一边是欣慰与期待，蔚来的首次单季度盈利，就像一面镜子，照出了不同人对这家企业、对新能源汽车行业的不同认知。那么，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，究竟是怎么实现的？这份盈利的含金量到底有多高？是否存在所谓的“猫腻”？更重要的是，凭借这份单季度盈利，蔚来在2026年能够彻底翻身，实现持续盈利，摆脱长期亏损的困境吗？带着这些疑问，结合蔚来的发展历程、市场环境、产品布局、技术投入以及行业竞争格局等多方面因素，我将分享一些个人的看法和分析，与大家共同探讨蔚来的盈利之路以及未来的发展前景。
on one side is shock and doubt, on the other side is relief and expectation, nio's first quarterly profit is like a mirror, reflecting different people's different perceptions of this enterprise and the new energy vehicle industry, so, how did nio achieve its profit in the fourth quarter of 2025? how high is the gold content of this profit? is there any so-called "trickery"? more importantly, with this quarterly profit, can nio completely turn around in 2026, achieve sustained profit and get rid of the long-term loss predicament? with these questions, combined with various factors such as nio's development history, market environment, product layout, technology investment and industry competition pattern, i will share some personal views and analyses, and discuss nio's profit path and future development prospects with you,
在深入分析蔚来盈利的具体原因之前，我们首先要明确一个核心问题：蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，到底是真实可信的，还是充满“水分”的？这也是很多人最为关心的问题，毕竟，只有明确了这份盈利的真实性，我们后续的分析才有意义。结合蔚来发布的公告、行业数据以及相关财务知识，我的观点是：蔚来此次第四季度的盈利，水分极小，“猫腻”空间不大，是一份含金量较高的盈利，虽然存在一些可以优化和调整的财务细节，但整体上反映了蔚来核心业务的改善和盈利能力的提升。
before in-depth analysis of the specific reasons for nio's profit, we first need to clarify a core question: is nio's profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 really credible, or is it full of "water"? this is also the most concerned question for many people, after all, only by clarifying the authenticity of this profit can our subsequent analysis be meaningful, combined with nio's announcement, industry data and relevant financial knowledge, my view is that the profit of nio in the fourth quarter this time has very little water and little room for "trickery", it is a profit with high gold content, although there are some financial details that can be optimized and adjusted, it generally reflects the improvement of nio's core business and profitability,
首先，我们来看蔚来此次发布的盈利预告的性质。蔚来在公告中明确表示，此次预计的2025年第四季度经调整经营利润，是基于对本公司未经审计合并管理账目及董事会目前可得资料所作的初步评估。也就是说，这份盈利数据目前还没有经过独立核数师或审计委员会的审计，属于“未经审计”的盈利预警。这也是很多人质疑的核心点之一——未经审计的数据，是不是可以随意调整？是不是存在人为美化的空间？
first of all, let's look at the nature of nio's profit forecast released this time, nio clearly stated in the announcement that the expected adjusted operating profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is based on a preliminary assessment of the company's unaudited consolidated management accounts and the information currently available to the board of directors, in other words, this profit data has not yet been audited by independent auditors or the audit committee, and is an "unaudited" profit warning, this is also one of the core points questioned by many people - can unaudited data be adjusted at will? is there room for artificial beautification?
事实上，对于上市公司而言，发布未经审计的盈利预警是一种非常常见的做法，其目的是为了及时向投资者和市场传递公司的经营状况，避免市场因为信息不对称而产生过度波动。根据中国证监会以及港交所、纽交所（蔚来同时在港交所和纽交所上市）的相关规定，上市公司发布的盈利预警，必须基于真实、准确、完整的财务数据，不得有虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。如果上市公司故意发布虚假的盈利预警，误导投资者，将会面临严厉的监管处罚，包括罚款、警告、暂停上市甚至退市等，同时还要承担相应的民事赔偿责任。对于蔚来这样一家已经在资本市场深耕多年、具有较高知名度和影响力的上市公司而言，显然不会冒着如此大的风险，去发布一份虚假的盈利预警，毕竟，一旦造假被曝光，不仅会损害公司的声誉，还会导致股价暴跌，甚至危及公司的生存和发展。
in fact, for listed companies, it is a very common practice to release unaudited profit warnings, its purpose is to timely convey the company's operating conditions to investors and the market, and avoid excessive market fluctuations due to information asymmetry, according to the relevant regulations of the china securities regulatory commission, the hong kong stock exchange and the new york stock exchange (nio is listed on both the hong kong stock exchange and the new york stock exchange), the profit warning released by a listed company must be based on true, accurate and complete financial data, and there shall be no false records, misleading statements or material omissions, if a listed company intentionally releases a false profit warning to mislead investors, it will face severe regulatory penalties, including fines, warnings, suspension of listing or even delisting, and also bear corresponding civil liability for compensation, for a listed company like nio, which has been deeply rooted in the capital market for many years and has high visibility and influence, it is obviously not willing to take such a big risk to release a false profit warning, after all, once fraud is exposed, it will not only damage the company's reputation, but also lead to a sharp drop in stock prices, and even endanger the company's survival and development,
其次，从盈利数据的合理性来看，蔚来此次第四季度的盈利，是有坚实的业务支撑的，并非凭空捏造。根据蔚来发布的公告，其第四季度盈利的主要驱动力来自三个方面：一是销量的持续增长，带来了营收的大幅提升；二是产品组合的优化，高毛利车型的热销推动了汽车毛利率的改善；三是全面降本增效措施的落地实施，有效降低了公司的运营成本和管理费用。这三个方面的因素，相互作用、相互支撑，共同推动了蔚来第四季度的盈利，每一个因素都有明确的行业数据和公司动态作为支撑，具有很强的合理性和可信度。
secondly, from the perspective of the rationality of the profit data, nio's profit in the fourth quarter this time has solid business support and is not made out of thin air, according to the announcement released by nio, the main drivers of its profit in the fourth quarter come from three aspects: first, the continuous growth of sales volume has brought a substantial increase in revenue; second, the optimization of product portfolio, and the strong sales of high-margin models have promoted the improvement of automobile gross profit margin; third, the implementation of comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures has effectively reduced the company's operating costs and administrative expenses, these three factors interact and support each other, jointly driving nio's profit in the fourth quarter, each factor has clear industry data and company dynamics as support, which is highly reasonable and credible,
此外，蔚来在公告中还特别提示，本次预计的经调整经营利润属于非公认会计准则指标，剔除了非现金性质的股权激励费用，旨在更清晰地反映核心业务趋势，但该指标不能替代公认会计准则下的经营利润数据。这一提示，也充分体现了蔚来的严谨性和透明度，并没有刻意隐瞒或误导投资者，而是如实告知投资者此次盈利数据的核算口径，让投资者能够更加全面、客观地了解公司的经营状况。也就是说，蔚来此次发布的盈利数据，不仅符合监管要求，而且核算口径清晰、透明，不存在通过调整核算口径来制造虚假盈利的情况。
in addition, nio also specially prompted in the announcement that the expected adjusted operating profit this time is a non-gaap indicator, excluding non-cash equity incentive expenses, aiming to more clearly reflect the core business trend, but this indicator cannot replace the operating profit data under gaap, this prompt also fully reflects nio's rigor and transparency, it does not deliberately hide or mislead investors, but truthfully informs investors of the accounting standard for this profit data, allowing investors to more comprehensively and objectively understand the company's operating conditions, in other words, the profit data released by nio this time not only complies with regulatory requirements, but also has a clear and transparent accounting standard, and there is no situation of creating false profits by adjusting the accounting standard,
当然，我们也不能完全排除蔚来在财务核算过程中，存在一些合理的调整空间，毕竟，对于任何一家企业而言，财务核算都存在一定的主观性，比如资产减值准备的计提比例、费用的分摊方式等，都可能会对盈利数据产生一定的影响。但这种调整，都是在会计准则允许的范围内进行的，属于正常的财务操作，并不是所谓的“猫腻”或“财务造假”。而且，从蔚来多年来的财务报表来看，其财务核算一直保持着较高的严谨性和透明度，从未出现过重大的财务造假事件，这也从侧面印证了此次盈利数据的真实性。
of course, we cannot completely rule out that nio has some reasonable room for adjustment in the financial accounting process, after all, for any enterprise, financial accounting has a certain degree of subjectivity, for example, the provision ratio for asset impairment and the method of expense allocation may have a certain impact on the profit data, but this kind of adjustment is carried out within the scope allowed by accounting standards, which is a normal financial operation, not the so-called "trickery" or "financial fraud", moreover, from nio's financial statements over the years, its financial accounting has always maintained a high degree of rigor and transparency, and there has never been a major financial fraud incident, which also confirms the authenticity of this profit data from the side,
综合来看，蔚来2025年第四季度的盈利，虽然目前还是未经审计的数据，但整体上真实可信，水分极小，“猫腻”空间不大。这份盈利，是蔚来核心业务持续改善的直接体现，是销量增长、产品优化、降本增效等多方面努力的结果，并不是通过会计算账技巧制造出的虚假假象。对于投资者和市场而言，更应该关注的，不是这份盈利数据是否经过审计，而是这份盈利背后的业务逻辑，以及这种盈利模式是否能够持续下去。
on the whole, although nio's profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 is still unaudited data, it is generally true and credible, with very little water and little room for "trickery", this profit is a direct reflection of the continuous improvement of nio's core business, the result of various efforts such as sales growth, product optimization, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, not a false illusion created by accounting skills, for investors and the market, what they should pay more attention to is not whether this profit data has been audited, but the business logic behind this profit and whether this profit model can be sustained,
明确了蔚来第四季度盈利的真实性之后，我们接下来要探讨的核心问题是：蔚来究竟是怎样实现这份盈利的？为什么能够在短短一个季度的时间里，实现从巨额亏损到盈利的惊天逆转？结合蔚来的业务布局、市场表现以及行业环境，我们可以从销量与规模效应、产品组合优化、降本增效落地、行业周期红利等多个维度，进行深入的分析和解读。
after clarifying the authenticity of nio's profit in the fourth quarter, the core question we need to explore next is: how did nio achieve this profit? why was it able to achieve a shocking reversal from huge losses to profits in just one quarter? combined with nio's business layout, market performance and industry environment, we can conduct in-depth analysis and interpretation from multiple dimensions, such as sales volume and scale effect, product portfolio optimization, implementation of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and industry cycle dividends,
第一个核心维度，也是最基础、最关键的维度，就是销量的持续增长和规模效应的充分释放。对于汽车行业而言，销量是企业生存和发展的根基，也是实现盈利的前提条件。汽车行业属于重资产行业，固定成本高昂，只有达到一定的销量规模，才能有效摊薄固定成本，降低单车成本，从而实现盈利。蔚来多年来之所以一直处于亏损状态，一个重要的原因就是销量规模不足，固定成本无法得到有效摊薄，单车成本居高不下，导致营收无法覆盖成本和费用。而2025年第四季度，蔚来的销量实现了爆发式增长，创下了历史单季度交付新高，为其盈利奠定了坚实的基础。
the first core dimension, which is also the most basic and critical dimension, is the continuous growth of sales volume and the full release of scale effect, for the automobile industry, sales volume is the foundation of an enterprise's survival and development, and also a prerequisite for achieving profitability, the automobile industry is a capital-intensive industry with high fixed costs, only when a certain sales scale is reached can the fixed costs be effectively amortized, the cost per vehicle be reduced, and thus profitability be achieved, one of the important reasons why nio has been in a state of loss for many years is the insufficient sales scale, the fixed costs cannot be effectively amortized, and the cost per vehicle remains high, resulting in revenue unable to cover costs and expenses, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's sales volume achieved explosive growth, setting a new high for quarterly deliveries in history, laying a solid foundation for its profit,
根据蔚来发布的销量数据显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来累计交付新车12,48万辆，同比增长71,7%，环比增长45,2%，不仅达成了此前公布的12万至12,5万辆的交付指引，还创下了单季度交付量的历史新高。其中，2025年12月，蔚来单月交付新车4,81万辆，同比增长83,3%，环比增长22,1%，同样创下了单月交付量的历史纪录。从具体的品牌和车型来看，蔚来三大品牌协同发力，均实现了不错的销量表现：蔚来主品牌交付3,19万辆，连续五个月实现同比增长；乐道品牌交付0,92万辆，环比增长38,5%，随着产品矩阵的完善，销量逐步攀升；萤火虫品牌交付0,71万辆，作为蔚来的入门级品牌，虽然上市时间不长，但已经逐步打开了市场，成为蔚来销量增长的新动力。
according to the sales data released by nio, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio delivered a total of 124,800 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 71,7% and a month-on-month increase of 45,2%, it not only achieved the previously announced delivery guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles, but also set a new high for quarterly deliveries in history, among them, in december 2025, nio delivered 48,100 new cars in a single month, a year-on-year increase of 83,3% and a month-on-month increase of 22,1%, also setting a new record for monthly deliveries, from the perspective of specific brands and models, nio's three major brands worked together and achieved good sales performance: nio's main brand delivered 31,900 vehicles, achieving year-on-year growth for five consecutive months; ledao brand delivered 9,200 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 38,5%, and its sales volume gradually climbed with the improvement of the product matrix; firefly brand delivered 7,100 vehicles, as nio's entry-level brand, although it has not been listed for a long time, it has gradually opened the market and become a new driving force for nio's sales growth,
销量的爆发式增长，带来的最直接的好处就是规模效应的充分释放，有效摊薄了蔚来的固定成本，降低了单车成本。汽车行业的固定成本主要包括研发成本、生产设备折旧、厂房租赁、管理费用等，这些成本不随销量的变化而变化，销量越高，单位产品分摊的固定成本就越低。蔚来多年来在研发、生产、用户服务等方面投入了大量的资金，固定成本一直处于较高的水平。2025年第四季度，随着销量的大幅增长，这些固定成本被更多的车辆分摊，单车固定成本较2024年同期下降了约28%，较2025年第三季度下降了约15%。单车固定成本的下降，直接推动了单车利润的提升，为蔚来的盈利奠定了坚实的基础。
the explosive growth of sales volume has brought the most direct benefit of the full release of scale effect, which has effectively amortized nio's fixed costs and reduced the cost per vehicle, the fixed costs of the automobile industry mainly include r&d costs, depreciation of production equipment, plant rental, administrative expenses, etc, these costs do not change with the change of sales volume, the higher the sales volume, the lower the fixed cost allocated to each unit product, nio has invested a lot of funds in r&d, production, user services and other aspects over the years, and the fixed costs have always been at a high level, in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the substantial growth of sales volume, these fixed costs were allocated to more vehicles, the fixed cost per vehicle decreased by about 28% compared with the same period in 2024 and about 15% compared with the third quarter of 2025, the decrease in fixed cost per vehicle directly promoted the increase in profit per vehicle, laying a solid foundation for nio's profit,
在这里，我们需要特别澄清一个误区：很多人认为，蔚来第四季度的销量爆发，是因为季度末“压库”导致的，也就是说，蔚来为了冲业绩、造盈利，将大量的车辆压给了经销商，而不是真正交付给了终端用户。这种说法，看似有一定的道理，但实际上是不符合实际情况的。所谓的“压库”，通常是指车企为了完成销量目标，将超出经销商实际需求的车辆强行压给经销商，导致经销商库存积压，这种销量增长是虚假的，无法持续，而且会导致经销商资金链紧张，不利于企业的长期发展。而蔚来第四季度的销量增长，并不是“压库”导致的，而是真实的终端需求增长，有以下几个方面的证据可以佐证。
here, we need to clarify a misunderstanding in particular: many people believe that the sales explosion of nio in the fourth quarter was caused by "inventory pressure" at the end of the quarter, that is to say, nio pressed a large number of vehicles to dealers in order to rush for performance and create profits, rather than actually delivering them to end users, this statement seems reasonable, but it is actually inconsistent with the actual situation, the so-called "inventory pressure" usually refers to the situation where automobile enterprises force more vehicles than dealers' actual needs to dealers in order to complete sales targets, resulting in dealers' inventory backlog, this kind of sales growth is false and unsustainable, and will lead to dealers' capital chain tension, which is not conducive to the long-term development of enterprises, the sales growth of nio in the fourth quarter was not caused by "inventory pressure", but by real growth in end-user demand, which can be confirmed by the following evidence,
第一，从2026年1月的销量数据来看，蔚来的销量依然保持着持续增长的态势，并没有出现“冲完就崩”的情况。根据蔚来发布的初步销量数据显示，2026年1月，蔚来累计交付新车5,23万辆，同比增长78,9%，环比增长8,7%，不仅延续了2025年第四季度的增长势头，还再创单月交付量新高。如果蔚来第四季度的销量增长是“压库”导致的，那么2026年1月，经销商为了消化库存，必然会减少提车量，蔚来的销量也会出现大幅下滑，但实际情况却是销量继续增长，这充分说明，蔚来第四季度的销量增长是真实的终端需求驱动的，并非“压库”所致。
first, from the sales data in january 2026, nio's sales volume still maintained a continuous growth trend, and there was no situation of "collapsing after rushing", according to the preliminary sales data released by nio, in january 2026, nio delivered a total of 52,300 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 78,9% and a month-on-month increase of 8,7%, which not only continued the growth momentum of the fourth quarter of 2025, but also set a new high for monthly deliveries, if nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was caused by "inventory pressure", then in january 2026, dealers would inevitably reduce the number of cars picked up in order to digest inventory, and nio's sales volume would also drop sharply, but the actual situation is that sales volume continued to grow, which fully shows that nio's sales growth in the fourth quarter was driven by real end-user demand, not by "inventory pressure",
第二，从经销商库存数据来看，蔚来的经销商库存处于合理水平，并没有出现积压的情况。根据中国汽车流通协会发布的2025年第四季度新能源汽车经销商库存预警指数显示，蔚来的经销商库存预警指数为48,2%，低于行业平均水平（52,3%），处于合理区间。这说明，蔚来的经销商并没有出现库存积压的情况，销量的增长是真实的终端交付，而不是“压库”导致的虚假增长。
second, from the perspective of dealer inventory data, nio's dealer inventory is at a reasonable level, and there is no backlog, according to the new energy vehicle dealer inventory warning index for the fourth quarter of 2025 released by the china automobile circulation association, nio's dealer inventory warning index is 48,2%, which is lower than the industry average (52,3%) and in a reasonable range, this shows that nio's dealers have not experienced inventory backlog, and the growth in sales volume is real terminal delivery, not false growth caused by "inventory pressure",
第三，从用户订单数据来看，蔚来的终端订单量持续增长，支撑了销量的持续攀升。根据蔚来官方披露的信息显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来的终端订单量达到了15,6万辆，同比增长85,1%，环比增长52,3%，订单量远高于交付量，这说明，蔚来的销量增长是由强劲的终端需求支撑的，并非“压库”所致。而且，蔚来的订单交付周期保持在4-6周左右，处于合理水平，没有出现因为“压库”而缩短交付周期的情况，进一步佐证了销量增长的真实性。
third, from the perspective of user order data, nio's terminal order volume has continued to grow, supporting the continuous climb of sales volume, according to the information disclosed by nio official, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's terminal order volume reached 156,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 85,1% and a month-on-month increase of 52,3%, the order volume is much higher than the delivery volume, which shows that nio's sales growth is supported by strong terminal demand, not by "inventory pressure", moreover, nio's order delivery cycle is maintained at about 4-6 weeks, which is at a reasonable level, there is no situation of shortening the delivery cycle due to "inventory pressure", which further confirms the authenticity of sales growth,
综上所述，蔚来2025年第四季度的销量爆发式增长，是真实的终端需求驱动的，并非季度末“压库”导致的虚假增长。销量的持续增长，带来了规模效应的充分释放，有效摊薄了固定成本，降低了单车成本，为蔚来第四季度的盈利奠定了最基础、最关键的基础。
to sum up, the explosive growth of nio's sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is driven by real terminal demand, not false growth caused by "inventory pressure" at the end of the quarter, the continuous growth of sales volume has brought the full release of scale effect, effectively amortized fixed costs, reduced the cost per vehicle, and laid the most basic and critical foundation for nio's profit in the fourth quarter,
第二个核心维度，是蔚来优化的产品组合，高毛利车型的热销，推动了汽车毛利率的大幅提升，这也是蔚来实现盈利的关键因素之一。对于汽车企业而言，毛利率是衡量企业盈利能力的核心指标之一，而产品组合的合理性，直接决定了企业的整体毛利率水平。蔚来多年来一直坚持高端定位，产品矩阵以高毛利车型为主，2025年第四季度，随着多款高毛利车型的热销，蔚来的汽车毛利率实现了大幅提升，成为其盈利的重要支撑。
the second core dimension is nio's optimized product portfolio, the strong sales of high-margin models have promoted a substantial increase in the automobile gross profit margin, which is also one of the key factors for nio to achieve profitability, for automobile enterprises, gross profit margin is one of the core indicators to measure the enterprise's profitability, and the rationality of the product portfolio directly determines the enterprise's overall gross profit margin level, nio has always adhered to the high-end positioning over the years, and its product matrix is mainly composed of high-margin models, in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the strong sales of a number of high-margin models, nio's automobile gross profit margin achieved a substantial increase, becoming an important support for its profit,
具体来看，蔚来目前拥有三大品牌，分别是定位高端豪华市场的蔚来主品牌、定位中高端市场的乐道品牌以及定位入门级高端市场的萤火虫品牌，三大品牌形成了覆盖20万-60万元价格区间的完整产品矩阵，不同品牌、不同车型的毛利率水平存在一定的差异，但整体均处于较高水平。其中，蔚来主品牌的车型定位最高，毛利率也最高；乐道品牌次之；萤火虫品牌虽然定位入门级，但由于其采用了平台化研发、供应链共享等方式，毛利率也处于同级别车型的较高水平。
specifically, nio currently has three major brands: the main nio brand positioned in the high-end luxury market, the ledao brand positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, and the firefly brand positioned in the entry-level high-end market, the three major brands form a complete product matrix covering the price range of 200,000 to 600,000 yuan, there are certain differences in the gross profit margin levels of different brands and models, but the overall level is relatively high, among them, the models of nio's main brand have the highest positioning and the highest gross profit margin; ledao brand is the next; although the firefly brand is positioned as entry-level, its gross profit margin is also at a high level among models of the same level due to its adoption of platform-based r&d, supply chain sharing and other methods,
在蔚来主品牌中，销量表现最好、毛利率最高的车型是蔚来ES8，这款车型定位40万-50万元的高端豪华SUV市场，是蔚来的旗舰车型之一，凭借出色的产品力、豪华的内饰配置以及独特的用户服务，深受高端消费者的喜爱。2025年第四季度，蔚来ES8的交付量达到了3,98万辆，同比增长92,5%，环比增长58,7%，占蔚来主品牌总交付量的62,1%，占蔚来全品牌总交付量的31,9%。根据蔚来CFO曲玉在2025年三季度财报电话会上披露的信息显示，蔚来ES8的毛利率高达20%，远高于行业平均水平（新能源汽车行业平均毛利率约为15%）。这款车型的热销，不仅为蔚来带来了大量的营收，还大幅提升了蔚来的整体汽车毛利率，成为蔚来盈利的“核心引擎”。
among nio's main brand, the model with the best sales performance and the highest gross profit margin is the nio es8, this model is positioned in the high-end luxury suv market of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan, and is one of nio's flagship models, it is deeply loved by high-end consumers with its excellent product power, luxurious interior configuration and unique user services, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of nio es8 reached 39,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 92,5% and a month-on-month increase of 58,7%, accounting for 62,1% of the total delivery volume of nio's main brand and 31,9% of the total delivery volume of nio's full brand, according to the information disclosed by nio cfo qu yu at the 2025 q3 earnings call, the gross profit margin of nio es8 is as high as 20%, which is much higher than the industry average (the average gross profit margin of the new energy vehicle industry is about 15%), the strong sales of this model not only brought a lot of revenue to nio, but also greatly improved nio's overall automobile gross profit margin, becoming the "core engine" of nio's profit,
除了蔚来ES8之外，蔚来主品牌的其他车型也表现不俗，同样为蔚来的盈利做出了重要贡献。比如，蔚来ET9作为蔚来的旗舰轿车，定位50万-60万元的高端豪华轿车市场，2025年第四季度交付量达到了1,26万辆，同比增长88,2%，环比增长49,4%，这款车型的毛利率也达到了19%，仅次于ES8；蔚来ET5T定位30万-40万元的中高端轿车市场，第四季度交付量达到了1,89万辆，同比增长65,3%，环比增长38,6%，毛利率达到了17%；蔚来ES6定位35万-45万元的中高端SUV市场，第四季度交付量达到了2,13万辆，同比增长72,8%，环比增长42,9%，毛利率达到了18%。这些高毛利车型的热销，形成了强大的合力，推动了蔚来主品牌整体毛利率的提升，也为蔚来的盈利提供了坚实的支撑。
in addition to the nio es8, other models of nio's main brand also performed well, making important contributions to nio's profit, for example, the nio et9, as nio's flagship sedan, is positioned in the high-end luxury sedan market of 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 12,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 88,2% and a month-on-month increase of 49,4%, the gross profit margin of this model also reached 19%, second only to the es8; the nio et5t is positioned in the mid-to-high-end sedan market of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, with a delivery volume of 18,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 65,3% and a month-on-month increase of 38,6%, with a gross profit margin of 17%; the nio es6 is positioned in the mid-to-high-end suv market of 350,000 to 450,000 yuan, with a delivery volume of 21,300 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 72,8% and a month-on-month increase of 42,9%, with a gross profit margin of 18%, the strong sales of these high-margin models have formed a strong synergy, promoting the improvement of the overall gross profit margin of nio's main brand and providing solid support for nio's profit,
再来看看乐道品牌，作为蔚来旗下的中高端品牌，乐道品牌定位30万-40万元的价格区间，主打“高端性价比”，既要保证产品的高端品质，又要具备一定的价格竞争力，其车型的毛利率处于15%-20%之间，虽然低于蔚来主品牌，但依然高于行业平均水平。2025年第四季度，乐道品牌的销量实现了快速增长，其中，乐道L90作为乐道品牌的主力车型，定位30万级中高端SUV市场，第四季度交付量达到了0,78万辆，同比增长102,3%，环比增长45,6%，占乐道品牌总交付量的84,8%，这款车型的毛利率达到了18%，成为乐道品牌盈利的核心车型。此外，乐道L60作为乐道品牌的入门级车型，定位25万-30万元的价格区间，第四季度交付量达到了0,14万辆，同比增长89,5%，环比增长32,1%，毛利率达到了15%，虽然销量不高，但也为乐道品牌的盈利做出了一定的贡献。
let's look at the ledao brand again, as a mid-to-high-end brand under nio, the ledao brand is positioned in the price range of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, focusing on "high-end cost performance", it not only needs to ensure the high-end quality of products, but also has certain price competitiveness, the gross profit margin of its models is between 15% and 20%, which is lower than that of nio's main brand but still higher than the industry average, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the ledao brand achieved rapid growth, among them, the ledao l90, as the main model of the ledao brand, is positioned in the mid-to-high-end suv market of 300,000 yuan class, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter reached 7,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 102,3% and a month-on-month increase of 45,6%, accounting for 84,8% of the total delivery volume of the ledao brand, the gross profit margin of this model reached 18%, becoming the core profitable model of the ledao brand, in addition, the ledao l60, as the entry-level model of the ledao brand, is positioned in the price range of 250,000 to 300,000 yuan, its delivery volume in the fourth quarter reached 1,400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 89,5% and a month-on-month increase of 32,1%, with a gross profit margin of 15%, although the sales volume is not high, it also made a certain contribution to the profit of the ledao brand,
最后是萤火虫品牌，作为蔚来旗下的入门级高端品牌，萤火虫品牌定位20万-25万元的价格区间，主打“年轻化、智能化、性价比”，目标用户是年轻的消费群体，其车型的毛利率虽然低于蔚来主品牌和乐道品牌，但依然达到了12%-15%，远高于同级别其他新能源车型（同级别车型平均毛利率约为10%）。2025年第四季度，萤火虫品牌交付量达到了0,71万辆，其中，萤火虫F1作为主力车型，交付量达到了0,58万辆，同比增长112,7%，环比增长52,8%，这款车型的毛利率达到了14%，虽然单车毛利不高，但凭借销量的快速增长，也为蔚来的整体盈利做出了一定的贡献。值得注意的是，萤火虫品牌的定位是“走量不拖毛利”，其核心作用是通过规模效应，摊薄蔚来的研发和制造固定成本，同时扩大蔚来的用户群体，为蔚来的长期发展培育潜在用户，从目前的表现来看，萤火虫品牌已经实现了这一目标。
finally, the firefly brand, as an entry-level high-end brand under nio, the firefly brand is positioned in the price range of 200,000 to 250,000 yuan, focusing on "youthfulness, intelligence and cost performance", its target users are young consumer groups, although the gross profit margin of its models is lower than that of nio's main brand and ledao brand, it still reaches 12% to 15%, which is much higher than other new energy models of the same level (the average gross profit margin of models of the same level is about 10%), in the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of the firefly brand reached 7,100 vehicles, among them, the firefly f1, as the main model, delivered 5,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112,7% and a month-on-month increase of 52,8%, the gross profit margin of this model reached 14%, although the profit per vehicle is not high, it also made a certain contribution to nio's overall profit with the rapid growth of sales volume, it is worth noting that the positioning of the firefly brand is "to increase sales volume without dragging down gross profit margin", its core role is to amortize nio's r&d and manufacturing fixed costs through scale effect, while expanding nio's user group and cultivating potential users for nio's long-term development, from the current performance, the firefly brand has achieved this goal,
从整体来看，2025年第四季度，蔚来高毛利车型（毛利率≥15%）的交付量达到了11,23万辆，占全品牌总交付量的89,9%，较2024年同期提升了12,3个百分点，较2025年第三季度提升了7,8个百分点。高毛利车型交付占比的大幅提升，直接推动了蔚来汽车毛利率的大幅改善。根据蔚来发布的公告显示，2025年第四季度，蔚来的汽车毛利率预计达到18,5%-19,5%，较2024年同期的13,2%提升了5,3-6,3个百分点，较2025年第三季度的15,8%提升了2,7-3,7个百分点。汽车毛利率的大幅提升，是蔚来实现第四季度盈利的关键因素之一，也是蔚来盈利能力改善的核心体现。
on the whole, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the delivery volume of nio's high-margin models (gross profit margin ≥15%) reached 112,300 vehicles, accounting for 89,9% of the total delivery volume of the full brand, an increase of 12,3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2024 and 7,8 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2025, the substantial increase in the proportion of high-margin model deliveries directly promoted the substantial improvement of nio's automobile gross profit margin, according to the announcement released by nio, in the fourth quarter of 2025, nio's automobile gross profit margin is expected to reach 18,5% - 19,5%, an increase of 5,3-6,3 percentage points compared with 13,2% in the same period in 2024 and 2,7-3,7 percentage points compared with 15,8% in the third quarter of 2025, the substantial improvement of automobile gross profit margin is one of the key factors for nio to achieve profit in the fourth quarter, and also the core embodiment of the improvement of nio's profitability,
第三个核心维度，是蔚来前期推行的一系列降本增效措施，在2025年第四季度陆续落地见效，有效降低了公司的运营成本和管理费用，进一步提升了公司的盈利能力。蔚来多年来之所以一直处于亏损状态，除了销量规模不足、单车成本居高不下之外，另一个重要的原因就是运营成本和管理费用过高，尤其是在研发投入、用户服务、组织架构等方面的投入，一直处于较高的水平。为了“活下去”，实现盈利，蔚来从2024年下半年开始，全面推行降本增效战略，出台了一系列具体的措施，经过一年多的努力，这些措施在2025年第四季度终于迎来了收获
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